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MARCH 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles increased 0.5% to 78,521 in March 2004 compared with February 2004. The trend estimate for total new motor vehicle sales has increased for the first three months of 2004.

An increase of 6.1% was recorded in the trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles in March 2004 compared with March 2003.

Sales of passenger vehicles recorded an increase in the trend estimate of 0.1% in March 2004 compared with February 2004. This increase followed six months of negative growth. The trend estimate for sales of other vehicles increased by 1.2% in March 2004 compared with February 2004.

Most states/territories recorded an increase in the trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles in March 2004 compared with March 2003. The exception was the Australian Capital Territory which recorded a fall of 3.9% over the twelve month period.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles decreased by 0.6% to 79,332 in March 2004 compared with February 2004.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles increased by 7.1% in March 2004 compared with March 2003. Passenger vehicle sales increased by 2.1% and other vehicle sales increased by 16.5% over the twelve month period.


NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)
Original
2003	January	40,015	21,155	61,170	-11.7	-6.6	-10.0
	February	43,677	23,058	66,735	9.2	9.0	9.1
	March	49,921	26,192	76,113	14.3	13.6	14.1
	April	44,602	24,263	68,865	-10.7	-7.4	-9.5
	May	49,646	28,616	78,262	11.3	17.9	13.6
	June	57,086	34,972	92,058	15.0	22.2	17.6
	July	51,450	28,071	79,521	-9.9	-19.7	-13.6
	August	49,869	26,304	76,173	-3.1	-6.3	-4.2
	September	51,749	26,042	77,791	3.8	-1.0	2.1
	October	52,180	27,045	79,225	0.8	3.9	1.8
	November	48,482	27,630	76,112	-7.1	2.2	-3.9
	December	49,834	27,952	77,786	2.8	1.2	2.2
2004	January	40,715	24,082	64,797	-18.3	-13.8	-16.7
	February	47,876	28,001	75,877	17.6	16.3	17.1
	March	53,728	32,318	86,046	12.2	15.4	13.4
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	January	47,143	25,671	72,814	10.7	16.2	12.6
	February	46,785	24,928	71,713	-0.8	-2.9	-1.5
	March	48,359	25,723	74,082	3.4	3.2	3.3
	April	48,986	26,248	75,234	1.3	2.0	1.6
	May	50,113	26,800	76,913	2.3	2.1	2.2
	June	50,320	27,241	77,561	0.4	1.6	0.8
	July	49,867	27,714	77,581	-0.9	1.7	0.0
	August	51,235	27,262	78,497	2.7	-1.6	1.2
	September	53,130	27,620	80,750	3.7	1.3	2.9
	October	49,178	27,647	76,825	-7.4	0.1	-4.9
	November	48,354	28,254	76,608	-1.7	2.2	-0.3
	December	46,063	27,073	73,136	-4.7	-4.2	-4.5
2004	January	49,401	29,830	79,231	7.2	10.2	8.3
	February	50,169	29,612	79,781	1.6	-0.7	0.7
	March	49,364	29,968	79,332	-1.6	1.2	-0.6
Trend
2003	January	46,874	25,097	71,971	1.1	0.9	1.1
	February	47,518	25,425	72,943	1.4	1.3	1.4
	March	48,195	25,839	74,034	1.4	1.6	1.5
	April	48,889	26,273	75,162	1.4	1.7	1.5
	May	49,655	26,692	76,347	1.6	1.6	1.6
	June	50,474	27,108	77,582	1.6	1.6	1.6
	July	51,082	27,437	78,519	1.2	1.2	1.2
	August	51,237	27,640	78,877	0.3	0.7	0.5
	September	50,920	27,765	78,685	-0.6	0.5	-0.2
	October	50,296	27,931	78,227	-1.2	0.6	-0.6
	November	49,604	28,192	77,796	-1.4	0.9	-0.6
	December	49,063	28,554	77,617	-1.1	1.3	-0.2
2004	January	48,787	28,968	77,755	-0.6	1.4	0.2
	February	48,732	29,386	78,118	-0.1	1.4	0.5
	March	48,776	29,745	78,521	0.1	1.2	0.5

		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)
Original
2003	January	20,648	16,490	11,632	3,988	5,762	1,025	534	1,091	61,170
	February	21,965	18,152	12,956	4,754	6,164	1,069	582	1,093	66,735
	March	25,541	20,408	14,843	5,147	6,917	1,218	769	1,270	76,113
	April	23,588	18,368	13,386	4,507	5,948	1,177	728	1,163	68,865
	May	26,259	21,053	14,967	5,273	7,127	1,454	789	1,340	78,262
	June	31,168	24,132	18,084	6,089	8,662	1,549	866	1,508	92,058
	July	26,983	21,248	15,716	5,298	6,973	1,407	635	1,261	79,521
	August	25,391	19,799	15,248	5,263	7,048	1,589	555	1,280	76,173
	September	25,738	21,200	15,293	5,222	6,894	1,639	593	1,212	77,791
	October	25,533	21,337	15,521	5,430	7,487	2,008	607	1,302	79,225
	November	25,099	20,254	15,058	5,214	6,925	1,717	630	1,215	76,112
	December	25,113	21,071	15,265	5,404	7,161	1,860	593	1,319	77,786
2004	January	21,216	16,857	13,403	4,334	6,249	1,193	498	1,047	64,797
	February	24,955	19,727	15,901	5,059	7,113	1,297	686	1,139	75,877
	March	28,118	22,137	18,611	5,561	8,086	1,343	912	1,278	86,046
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	January	24,591	19,760	13,818	4,852	6,594	1,295	665	1,239	72,814
	February	24,002	19,517	13,677	4,981	6,456	1,267	644	1,169	71,713
	March	24,647	20,097	14,488	4,992	6,586	1,341	690	1,241	74,082
	April	25,630	20,217	14,525	5,094	6,422	1,385	695	1,266	75,234
	May	25,718	20,797	14,846	5,113	7,044	1,424	685	1,286	76,913
	June	25,994	21,069	14,632	5,113	7,291	1,492	661	1,309	77,561
	July	25,729	20,766	15,392	5,198	7,132	1,472	648	1,244	77,581
	August	26,362	20,451	15,727	5,330	7,173	1,579	600	1,275	78,497
	September	27,369	21,183	15,890	5,395	7,312	1,621	684	1,296	80,750
	October	24,627	20,062	15,649	5,328	7,272	1,987	633	1,267	76,825
	November	24,758	20,317	15,659	5,256	7,100	1,641	642	1,235	76,608
	December	23,950	19,743	14,310	5,111	6,884	1,273	634	1,231	73,136
2004	January	26,233	20,692	16,298	5,322	7,292	1,535	636	1,223	79,231
	February	26,378	20,845	16,679	5,222	7,196	1,520	734	1,207	79,781
	March	25,979	20,608	16,872	5,204	7,298	1,398	794	1,179	79,332
Trend
2003	January	24,286	19,633	13,719	4,765	6,444	1,275	654	1,195	71,971
	February	24,567	19,850	13,946	4,888	6,510	1,300	668	1,214	72,943
	March	24,879	20,102	14,205	4,991	6,609	1,335	677	1,236	74,034
	April	25,209	20,349	14,485	5,069	6,744	1,369	679	1,258	75,162
	May	25,598	20,578	14,771	5,130	6,905	1,413	676	1,276	76,347
	June	26,026	20,785	15,080	5,187	7,064	1,479	668	1,293	77,582
	July	26,329	20,901	15,344	5,240	7,185	1,555	661	1,304	78,519
	August	26,389	20,892	15,495	5,283	7,239	1,622	651	1,306	78,877
	September	26,228	20,790	15,534	5,305	7,229	1,660	641	1,298	78,685
	October	25,966	20,660	15,535	5,301	7,185	1,658	639	1,283	78,227
	November	25,717	20,555	15,567	5,279	7,151	1,620	644	1,263	77,796
	December	25,567	20,500	15,692	5,251	7,147	1,561	659	1,240	77,617
2004	January	25,554	20,487	15,923	5,230	7,159	1,501	681	1,220	77,755
	February	25,641	20,509	16,211	5,215	7,183	1,451	707	1,201	78,118
	March	25,754	20,522	16,503	5,204	7,209	1,408	733	1,188	78,521